The federal minimum wage hasn't been raised from its current level of $7.25 an hour since 2009, and despite strong public support for an increase to $15, experts say the chances of achieving that goal in the short term may be fading.
Almost two-thirds of Americans support a $15 minimum wage at the federal level, and a large majority of those who don't still think the current floor is too low, according to an April survey by the Pew Research Center. …
While worker advocates remain hopeful, employer advocates say current political dynamics could frustrate the effort to reach $15, and a failure to compromise could result in no increase at all.
Mixed Opinions
Advocates say Democrats must pass an increase to the minimum wage in order to keep the party competitive in the 2022 midterm elections. …
The odds are "pretty low" that supporters of the $15 minimum will be able to round up 60 votes given the current composition of the Senate, said Paul DeCamp, a partner at employer-side firm Epstein Becker Green who used to head the U.S. Department of Labor's Wage and Hour Division under former President George W. Bush.
"There seems to be a recognition that action in Congress — at least the current Congress — to raise the minimum wage is probably unlikely," DeCamp said. …
Possible Compromise?
The raft of legislation aiming to change the federal wage floor demonstrates a bipartisan interest in tackling the issue, but lawmakers aren't likely to agree on a one-size-fits-all approach for the whole country, DeCamp said.
"If the federal minimum wage goes to $15, it's not going to have a bit of an effect in a place like San Francisco or Boston," he said. "If you increase the general minimum wage in Alabama to $15, you're going to put a lot of people out of work."
A compromise bill that takes into account those regional economic differences might have a better chance of passing, said DeCamp, who testified before Congress in May about minimum wage issues.
"I think something like that would be the only way we'd see a broad consensus across the political spectrum for raising the minimum wage at the federal level," he said.